5
Will Not Be Swayed
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 88
Saratoga · Race 13 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength84%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 31/12/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |