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7

Complex Agenda

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 95

Saratoga · Race 14 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f

#10

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 31/08/2024 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 11931/08C6C6 @ Monmouth Park 19/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 92 · 1m110y Fm 119 · below its mark19/07/2025 · OR 92 parC9 @ Saratoga 27/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 92 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark27/08/2025 · OR 92 par27/08C9OR 92C9 @ Belmont At The Big A 24/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 120 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 90 parC7 @ Aqueduct 11/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 95 · 1m1f 120 · below its mark11/12/2025 · OR 95 par11/12C7OR 95C7 @ Aqueduct 06/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 92 · 1m1f 123 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 92 parC7 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 89 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 89 par2/05C7OR 89C7 @ Saratoga 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 126 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 90 parC6 @ Saratoga 05/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 91 · 1m4f Fm 126 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 91 par5/07C6OR 91projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-05Saratoga?4th4th0
2026-06-07Saratoga?1st2nd−1
2026-05-02Belmont At The Big A?2nd3rd−1
2026-02-06Aqueduct?7th8th−1
2025-12-11Aqueduct?4th5th−1
2025-10-24Belmont At The Big A?1st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0824/102/055/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength73%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/08/20244th8/158%63%+0.05
19/07/20256th8/158%50%-0.08
27/08/20255th9/153%56%+0.03
24/10/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
11/12/20254th20/10%63%+0.63
06/02/20267th10/147%14%-0.33
02/05/20262nd9/153%88%+0.35
07/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
05/07/20264th10/147%70%+0.23