5
Light Cav
3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 91
Saratoga · Race 14 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#8
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 12/03/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |