Mutaawid
6yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 104
Saratoga · Race 14 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
76%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 04/09/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 64% | -0.22 |
| 12/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 21/02/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 18% | -0.58 |
| 16/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |