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10

Rotterdam

6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 109

Saratoga · Race 14 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f

#2

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 03/02/2024 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 90 · 7f110y Fm 123 · below its mark03/02/2024 · OR 90 par3/02C6OR 90C6 @ Gulfstream 30/03/2024 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 100 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark30/03/2024 · OR 100 parC8 @ Gulfstream 20/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 102 · 1m110y Fm 123 · beat its mark20/12/2024 · OR 102 par20/12C8OR 102C6 @ Gulfstream 23/01/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 104 · 1m110y Fas 122 · below its mark23/01/2025 · OR 104 parC6 @ Gulfstream 01/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 102 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark01/03/2025 · OR 102 par1/03C6OR 102C5 @ Keeneland 09/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 108 · 1m Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/04/2025 · OR 108 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 01/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 101 · 1m Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/05/2025 · OR 101 par1/05C5OR 101C6 @ Gulfstream 21/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 106 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark21/06/2025 · OR 106 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 29/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 27 · 2m Gd 155 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 27 par29/06C5OR 27projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-29Colonial Downs?1st0th+1
2025-10-18Far Hills?+1
2025-06-21Gulfstream?2nd2nd0
2025-05-01Churchill Downs?6th5th+1
2025-04-09Keeneland?3rd2nd+1
2025-03-01Gulfstream?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0223/011/0529/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/02/20242nd11/271%86%+0.15
30/03/20249th9/488%11%-0.77
20/12/20241st2/189%100%+0.11
23/01/20252nd5/493%88%-0.06
01/03/20254th7/282%73%-0.09
09/04/20253rd5/174%82%+0.08
01/05/20256th6/594%50%-0.44
21/06/20252nd13/891%83%-0.08
29/06/20261st20/10%100%+1.00