Sagamore Mischief

9yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 92

Saratoga · Race 14 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f

#13

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#13

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲2

Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: -1.8

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-29	Finger Lakes	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-06-26	Belmont At The Big A	?	2nd	4th	−2	5.6
2026-06-13	Belmont At The Big A	?	3rd	5th	−2	4.6
2026-05-03	Belmont At The Big A	?	2nd	4th	−2	5.6
2026-04-03	Aqueduct	?	3rd	5th	−2	4.6
2026-03-12	Aqueduct	?	7th	9th	−2	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish11th of 14

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength58%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
18/10/2025	4th	15/2	61%	63%	+0.02
10/01/2026	4th	7/4	91%	40%	-0.51
21/02/2026	6th	4/1	79%	0%	-0.79
12/03/2026	7th	11/2	71%	0%	-0.71
03/04/2026	3rd	11/2	71%	71%	+0.00
03/05/2026	2nd	6/1	68%	83%	+0.15
13/06/2026	3rd	2/1	89%	60%	-0.29
26/06/2026	2nd	4/1	79%	80%	+0.01
29/07/2026	4th	9/2	76%	25%	-0.51