13
Sara's Shaman
6yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 90
Saratoga · Race 14 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#14
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 14
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength29%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 06/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 22/03/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |