11
Sardis
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 100
Saratoga · Race 14 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#12
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 08/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 30/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 55% | -0.24 |
| 28/03/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |