4
Versailles Road
3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 96
Saratoga · Race 14 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 05/10/2025 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 27% | -0.39 |
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.20 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |