Very Connected
3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 90
Saratoga · Race 14 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | -2th | +5 |
| 2025-10-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | -3th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 31/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |