2
Bramito
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 108
Saratoga · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-12-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength56%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 21/11/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 26/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |