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7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 112
Saratoga · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 27/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 18/07/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 22/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 88% | -0.03 |