Instant Replay
4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 106
Saratoga · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2025-05-26 | Lone Star | BHA100 | 1st | 6th | −5 |
| 2025-04-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-03-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | -3th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 13/12/2024 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 17/02/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/03/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 26/05/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 05/07/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 25% | -0.69 |