1
San Siro
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 109
Saratoga · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength91%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.4
Today:
Class gap: +3.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | -3th | +5 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | -3th | +5 |
| 2026-03-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-02-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 2nd | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 04/07/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 10/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 20/12/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |