5
Carmensita
5yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 88
Saratoga · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 4th | +5 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | San Isidro | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | San Isidro | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-06-20 | San Isidro | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-05-25 | San Isidro | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength50%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 04/04/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 27/04/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 25/05/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 20/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 04/07/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |