2
Lady River Lily
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 79
Saratoga · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 12th | 14th | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-03-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-02-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 12
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 04/06/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |