8
Lovely Christina
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 89
Saratoga · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2025-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 31/08/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |