3
Mermaid
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 87
Saratoga · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 12
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 30/01/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 11/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |