6
Scratch It
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 87
Saratoga · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | BHA90 | 7th | 12th | −4 |
| 2025-10-05 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | -3th | +4 |
| 2025-08-27 | Saratoga | BHA88 | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-08-01 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 27/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |