8
Fact
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 98
Saratoga · Race 5 - Allowance · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-03 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 24/05/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 03/07/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |