4
Private Desire
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 92
Saratoga · Race 5 - Allowance · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength28%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 02/07/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 03/08/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 38% | -0.48 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |