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4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 93

Saratoga · Race 5 - Allowance · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fair Grounds 21/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 6f Fas 12521/03C6C9 @ Churchill Downs 10/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 89 · 7f 124 · beat its mark10/05/2026 · OR 89 par10/05C9OR 89C5 @ Churchill Downs 03/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 96 · 6f110y 125 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 96 par3/06C5OR 96C5 @ Saratoga 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 92 · 6f 126 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 92 par18/07C5OR 92projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Saratoga?4th4th0
2026-06-03Churchill Downs?5th5th0
2026-05-10Churchill Downs?1st5th−4
2026-03-21Fair Grounds?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0310/053/0618/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength73%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20264th11/893%50%-0.43
10/05/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
03/06/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
18/07/20264th12/137%50%+0.13