1
Unbroken Chain
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 87
Saratoga · Race 5 - Allowance · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 03/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |