13
Castle Chaos
8yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 96
Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#11
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength35%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 14
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 07/06/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/06/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 28/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |