9
Emergence
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 100
Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Ellis Park | BHA101 | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2025-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 01/03/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 09/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 13/06/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 04/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 24/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |