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8

Fort Thomas

5yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 100

Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f

#6

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Ellis Park 17/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 98 · 1m1f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/08/2025 · OR 98 par17/08C5OR 98C5 @ Kentucky Downs 04/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 99 · 1m4f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/09/2025 · OR 99 parC5 @ Keeneland 11/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 94 · 1m1f110y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 94 par11/10C5OR 94C5 @ Churchill Downs 02/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 100 · 1m1f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 100 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 30/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 99 · 1m1f 121 · below its mark30/11/2025 · OR 99 par30/11C6OR 99C5 @ Keeneland 03/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 107 · 1m1f Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 107 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 25/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 101 · 1m1f Fm 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 101 par25/04C5OR 101C5 @ Churchill Downs 24/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 105 · 1m3f Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Saratoga 05/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 102 · 1m4f Fm 126 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 102 par5/07C6OR 102projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-05Saratoga?9th9th0
2026-05-24Churchill Downs?2nd1st+1
2026-04-25Churchill Downs?4th3rd+1
2026-04-03Keeneland?3rd2nd+1
2025-11-30Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2025-11-02Churchill Downs?3rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/082/1125/045/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength95%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/08/20253rd10/147%67%+0.19
04/09/20258th12/137%30%-0.07
11/10/20255th25/10%64%+0.64
02/11/20253rd33/10%82%+0.82
30/11/20254th8/158%73%+0.15
03/04/20263rd20/10%82%+0.82
25/04/20264th16/116%67%+0.51
24/05/20262nd10/147%90%+0.43
05/07/20269th4/179%20%-0.59