3
Greystone
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 101
Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2024 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/11/2024 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 05/01/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 01/02/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 02/03/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 29/03/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 24/04/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.20 |
| 22/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |