Il Siciliano
5yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 107
Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | -2th | +5 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2025-10-10 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2025-08-16 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 29/03/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 14/06/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 10/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |