6
Just For Luck
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 99
Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#3
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-11-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 12/09/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 29/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 07/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 44% | -0.27 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |