7
Kravitz
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 93
Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |