Monterey Bay
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 100
Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | BHA105 | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2025-10-04 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2024 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 73% | -0.22 |
| 04/07/2024 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 06/06/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 06/07/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |