Noble Factor
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 100
Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 25/01/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 56% | -0.39 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |