14
Sharp Spark
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 95
Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#12
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 30/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 56% | -0.29 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |