4
Write Off Jerry
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 101
Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 36% | -0.24 |
| 16/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 07/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 30% | -0.41 |