8
Carmel Coast
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 96
Saratoga · Race 9 - Test S. Presented By Ticketmaster - Grade 1 · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.4
Today:
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-10-04 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 44% | -0.44 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |