7
Explora
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 105
Saratoga · Race 9 - Test S. Presented By Ticketmaster - Grade 1 · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.4
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-10-31 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength99%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 83% | -0.14 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 1/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 08/02/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |