5
Goodall
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 96
Saratoga · Race 9 - Test S. Presented By Ticketmaster - Grade 1 · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲4
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-01-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength81%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 89% | -0.01 |