1
Movie Night
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 107
Saratoga · Race 9 - Test S. Presented By Ticketmaster - Grade 1 · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
2/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 10.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -5.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-05-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
| 2016-07-31 | Philadelphia Park | ? | 5th | 13th | −6 |
| 2016-06-20 | Philadelphia Park | ? | 9th | 15th | −5 |
| 2015-12-15 | Philadelphia Park | ? | 3rd | 12th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength95%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2015 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 08/11/2015 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 28/11/2015 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 15/12/2015 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 20/06/2016 | 9th | 15/1 | 21% | 11% | -0.10 |
| 31/07/2016 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |