6
On Time Girl
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 97
Saratoga · Race 9 - Test S. Presented By Ticketmaster - Grade 1 · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
72%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength78%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 31/01/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |