2
Percy's Bar
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 99
Saratoga · Race 9 - Test S. Presented By Ticketmaster - Grade 1 · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
4/6
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/06/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 03/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 31/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 4/6 | 96% | 33% | -0.63 |