3
Sippin Pretty
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 95
Saratoga · Race 9 - Test S. Presented By Ticketmaster - Grade 1 · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲4
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength48%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |