4
Where Luck Lives
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 101
Saratoga · Race 9 - Test S. Presented By Ticketmaster - Grade 1 · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -5.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2025-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 11th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |