3
Candlelight Hours
7yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 93
Thistledown · Race 1 - Best Of Ohio Pay The Man Stakes · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
89%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 09/06/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/06/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 04/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |