7
Derby Day Kiss
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 75
Thistledown · Race 1 - Best Of Ohio Pay The Man Stakes · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-12-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-24 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2024 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 29/01/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 03/09/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 16/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 02/01/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |