2
Here's The Spider
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 86
Thistledown · Race 1 - Best Of Ohio Pay The Man Stakes · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2024 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 15/12/2024 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/06/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 06/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 31/07/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 23/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |