9
Lionistic
7yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 87
Thistledown · Race 1 - Best Of Ohio Pay The Man Stakes · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-03-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-01-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength66%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 02/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/01/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 09/02/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |