1
Fair And Square
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 92
Thistledown · Race 3 - Best Of Ohio Governor's Buckeye Cup Stakes · 1m 2f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2024 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/09/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 26/10/2024 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 91% | +0.05 |
| 11/06/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 02/07/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |