8
Leavetheninetynine
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 75
Thistledown · Race 3 - Best Of Ohio Governor's Buckeye Cup Stakes · 1m 2f
#8
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength80%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 09/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |