7
Private Moment
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 83
Thistledown · Race 3 - Best Of Ohio Governor's Buckeye Cup Stakes · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2024 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 14/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 14/08/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 03/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 17/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |