5
Tantrum
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 84
Thistledown · Race 3 - Best Of Ohio Governor's Buckeye Cup Stakes · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2024-11-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-10-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength23%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2024 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 15/07/2024 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 10/08/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 26/10/2024 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 25/11/2024 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 05/05/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 02/07/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 14/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |